Sold!

I've been following the wait list thread and I've seen estimates of from 35 to 40 units per month mentioned.  With well over 1400 on the list (just checked), isn't 3 years conservative at this point?

I ordered my Torii (Now MK V!) about a year ago. Looks like I’m almost at the home stretch waiting for it to ship! The wait is long, but there’s a lot to love about a hand built work of art….

Just stop at that and think for short beat, everyone.

Consider 35 to 40 units per month! From one small shop, fully tested and guaranteed for LIFE. Then throw in mods to already built gear from time to time!
That is an astounding production rate! I am not on the list yet, but I have to applaud the Decware crew.

My older, second hand SE84Cs are still working like ... perfect.
I will get a ZRock and better cabling, soon-ish.

And one last point.  I think it's ridiculous that so many people complain about the length of the waitlist, either overtly or passively.  Decware is doing the best they can and we all should back off.

This is all part of my new internet forum approach of arguing both sides of an issue simultaneously......

Not too sure about a 3 year wait is rubbish! Decware has been taking steps for a year now with no apparent increase in production rate to meet demand.

I've seen problems with the addition of personal.

Costs of scaling up would be steep as an artesian enterprise.

If Decware wants to remain as a cottage business then a 3 year wait is real and will increase as the order backlog increases.

My two.

John

Quote:


Consider myself lucky. It comes naturally and painlessly.

Now DS if your going to go into details give those in full. Not only did Decware hire a new tech(s?), they also hired a QC person and office clerk.

In your error in case it was a combination of a wiring error by a unknown tech and a failure of QC to catch it before it shipped. The new office personal has been doing a good job of keeping the order lists up to date during regular working hours.

John

The only way to actually refute the "3 year wait" conclusion is to provide alternative data regarding the length of the list, and how many orders are shipping each month.

As it is, the rate of shipment is easy to figure out.  If you're on the list, write down your position today.  Check back in a month as see how far you've moved.  That's the rate of shipment each month.

Then truck on over to the waitlist and see how many orders are posted.  Divide the number of orders by the rate of shipment, and you have how long the current wait times are.  Currently 3  years, 4 months.

If you wish to refute those conclusions, then you need to provide alternative data.  This is not a subjective audiophile conversation.  It's simple math based upon publicly available data.....

I would be thrilled to be incorrect.

But statements like RiverRanch's that the 3 year wait is rubbish, have little meaning when the publicly available mathematical data paints an obviously different picture.....

Hello, Dancing Sea, and congratulations on moving your Zbox to a new home.  And glad that you are enjoying your new components.

I have appreciated your posts, and your analysis of the wait-list issues.  And I appreciate your constructive observations, like having good notice of the potential wait-time.  However, I do have a slightly different view of some of the numbers, that I wanted to "share" (offered in the spirit of good conversation, and not argument!).

I understand your estimate of a wait-time of 3+ years.  But I am seeing changes that may not be reflected in that estimate.  As JBzen noted, there is now an additional administrative person, and the order list does seem to be fully updated now (the most recent order shown is from yesterday).  

I ordered on "Black Friday", and first showed on the list on January 29.  As of yesterday (41 days after I appeared on the list), I have moved up 66 places (which may include both orders fulfilled and orders cancelled).  That is about 1.6 places per day, or about 49 places per month.  At that rate, the last person on the list (about 1432) would get their order in about 29 months (a little less than 2.5 years).  

2.5 years is still a long time to wait, but it also enough time that additional actions could be taken to shorten the wait time.  For example, Decware recently changed their policy so that new items can no longer be added to an existing order.  Also, there is more time to hire and train new staff.

So I guess my point is that I think the wait time may end up shorter than what we can estimate based on past experience.  And as I have said before, I understood the potential long wait time when I placed my order, so I am not complaining.

(PS - I know I should not have posted this, as it may "jinx me" and result in a 3+ year wait time).

Tone-Deaf,

Thank you for the constructive feedback.  Please note that we are essentially saying the same thing and that I agree with you.

My comments about the "3+ year wait" are specific for *today*.  Obviously I cannot predict how Decware's rate of production might change tomorrow.  And if it does change, then yes, wait time would be less.  We will have to see how that shakes out, it's going to be a challenge for Steve.

That same sort math of averages accurately predicted the ship date of my ZR2 and CSP3.  I did the calculations last summer, and they were accurate within 2 weeks of their shipping in mid-February 2022.

To reemphasize, my math only speaks to today. Today being Saturday, March 12, 2022.

But the current 35 units shipping per month was the same rate as last summer.  And the new tech was hired to the best of my knowledge in December.

The reality is that Decware cannot scale much.  The YouTube video reviews exist in perpetuity and have been seen by about 200,000 people, and counting, around the world.  It is extraordinarily effective marketing.  

As that YouTube machine rolls on and orders keep pouring in, Decware will simply not be able to hire enough people to scale to meet demand unless interests starts to wane.  But how can it wane when you have Steve Guttenberg, Andrew Robinson, and Thomas & Stereo gushing about Decware?  Andrew Robinson essentially states the $1300 amp is the best amp ever made.  Ever!

Evidence of that is proven by the reality of the wait ballooning to 3 years despite the new hires.  Steve simply can't hire enough people to support the current trajectory set forth by YouTube.  He can't.

And that is a difficult conundrum of how success isn't necessarily always a positive thing.

And what a headache all of this must be for Steve.

Haha!

YouTube is a road to ruin….

DancingSea,

Maybe it's more than Youtube adding to the waitlist.

Somebody please LOCK this thread! It is eclipsing my post for the HR-1’s.

Hi Dance,

I have to agree with Riviera. This section should be about selling equipment.

There is plenty of room for any topic discussion elsewhere on the forum.

Best,

Geno

I say, it's near midnight on a Saturday and we all need a beer. If I lived closer I would have Steve's fire going by now and a cold one ready, steaks ready to burn.

Maybe he'll check in soon, possibly post.

I don't really think there is much to this "discussion" that will carry over to spring.
Everyone, pop a top! Light a tube, burn a burger, read more books  ...  Or go tell your own fire how it's supposed to be for today.